Cox Automotive Lowers Full-Year New-Vehicle Sales Forecast as Persistent Supply Problems Continue to Hold Back Auto Industry

Published: Jun. 28, 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT
  • U.S. auto sales are forecast to finish down 17.3% year over year; Cox Automotive revises its full-year 2022 new-vehicle sales forecast to 14.4 million units, down from 15.3 million.
  • Annual new-vehicle sales pace in June is forecast to finish near 13.8 million, up from last month's 12.7 million pace, but lower than last year's 15.5 million level.
  • June sales volume is expected to fall 7.5% from one year ago to 1.2 million units. Forecast volume in June, however, is a 7.5% increase from last month.

ATLANTA, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- June U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to show a market still constrained by a lack of supply, and one that is virtually unchanged since January. According to the Cox Automotive June sales forecast released today, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales this month is expected to hit 13.8 million, up from last month's 12.7 million pace but well below last year's 15.5 million level.

Cox Automotive (PRNewsfoto/Cox Automotive)
Cox Automotive (PRNewsfoto/Cox Automotive)(PRNewswire)
The current forecast now is for new-vehicle sales volumes to fall below the 14.6 million sold in 2020.

The sales volume in June is expected to finish near 1.2 million units, down 7.5% from last year's volume of 1.3 million sales. However, this is an increase of 7.5% from May's volume of nearly 1.1 million units. There is one more selling day this June than last year and the same number as last month.

Tight inventory continues to negatively impact new-vehicle sales. Since June of 2021, monthly sales volume has been stuck in a tight window, with little deviation, averaging 1.1 million units a month and peaking only at 1.3 million in June 2021. With no clear timeline for any notable recovery in new-vehicle inventory levels, Cox Automotive is lowering its full-year 2022 U.S. auto sales forecast to 14.4 million units, down from its current forecast of 15.3 million. The current forecast now is for new-vehicle sales volumes to fall below the 14.6 million sold in 2020, when the market was initially ravaged by the global COVID pandemic.

"Last June, I wrote that the concern about the supply situation could not be overstated, as we were in untested territory for the market," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. "That sentiment remains, as there has been no significant shift in the conditions on the ground since last fall. Even though economic conditions have worsened in the past months, the lack of supply is still the greatest headwind facing the auto industry today."

June and First-Half 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights 

  • In June, light vehicle sales are forecast to reach 1.2 million units, down 7.5% from June 2021. Sales volume in June is expected to rise nearly 181,000 compared to May, or 7.5%.
  • The SAAR in June 2022 is expected to be 13.8 million, below last year's 15.5 million level, and up from May's 12.7 million pace.
  • Second quarter 2022 sales are forecast to fall 19.3% compared to Q2 2021
  • First-half sales are forecast to be down 17.3% from the same period in 2021.
  • General Motors is forecast to outsell Toyota in Q2, jumping back into the top-seller position.
  • Tesla is the only major brand to increase sales year over year in the first half. Honda, Nissan and VW all see first-half sales drops in excess of 30% year over year.

June 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast 



Sales Forecast1 




Market Share


Segment

Jun-22

Jun-21

May-22

YOY%

MOM%

Jun-22

May-22

MOM

Mid-Size Car

77,000

86,545

73,759

-11.0 %

4.4 %

6.4 %

6.6 %

-0.2 %

Compact Car

73,000

109,904

67,370

-33.6 %

8.4 %

6.1 %

6.0 %

0.0 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

165,000

202,687

154,862

-18.6 %

6.5 %

13.8 %

13.9 %

-0.1 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

168,000

179,442

162,044

-6.4 %

3.7 %

14.0 %

14.5 %

-0.5 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

220,000

212,012

205,870

3.8 %

6.9 %

18.3 %

18.4 %

-0.1 %

Grand Total2 

1,200,000

1,297,292

1,116,503

-7.5 %

7.5 %




1   Cox Automotive Industry Insights data  

2   Total includes segments not shown   

Q2 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast


Sales Forecast[1]


Market Share

OEM

Q2 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Year 

over

Year

Quarter

over

Quarter

GM

683,696

509,122

575,911

-15.8 %

13.1 %

Toyota

688,813

514,592

543,819

-21.0 %

5.7 %

Ford

472,260

429,174

496,248

5.1 %

15.6 %

Stellantis

485,312

405,221

412,005

-15.1 %

1.7 %

Hyundai

470,042

322,593

372,956

-20.7 %

15.6 %

Honda

486,419

266,418

254,230

-47.7 %

-4.6 %

Nissan

323,294

227,481

217,434

-32.7 %

-4.4 %

Tesla

76,230

129,743

144,845

90.0 %

11.6 %

Volkswagen

206,473

113,540

138,661

-32.8 %

22.1 %

Subaru

160,824

132,346

132,996

-17.3 %

0.5 %

Daimler

92,443

75,939

84,245

-8.9 %

10.9 %

BMW

105,901

80,590

83,499

-21.2 %

3.6 %

Mazda

105,909

82,268

68,409

-35.4 %

-16.8 %

Geely

36,663

24,267

28,662

-21.8 %

18.1 %

Tata

28,265

18,193

12,910

-54.3 %

-29.0 %

Total

4,422,544

3,333,174

3,568,586

-19.3 %

7.1 %

1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

First Half 2022 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast


Sales Forecast1 


Market Share


OEM

H1 2021

H1 2022

Change

H1 2021

Share

H1 2022

Share

Difference

GM

1,323,102

1,085,033

-18.0 %

15.9 %

15.7 %

-0.1 %

Toyota

1,291,879

1,058,411

-18.1 %

15.5 %

15.3 %

-0.1 %

Ford

989,971

925,422

-6.5 %

11.9 %

13.4 %

1.5 %

Stellantis

954,963

817,226

-14.4 %

11.4 %

11.8 %

0.4 %

Hyundai

804,944

695,549

-13.6 %

9.6 %

10.1 %

0.4 %

Honda

833,510

520,648

-37.5 %

10.0 %

7.5 %

-2.4 %

Nissan

637,078

444,915

-30.2 %

7.6 %

6.4 %

-1.2 %

Tesla

145,530

274,588

88.7 %

1.7 %

4.0 %

2.2 %

Volkswagen

369,534

252,201

-31.8 %

4.4 %

3.7 %

-0.8 %

Subaru

321,250

265,342

-17.4 %

3.8 %

3.8 %

0.0 %

Daimler

182,358

160,184

-12.2 %

2.2 %

2.3 %

0.1 %

BMW

183,619

164,089

-10.6 %

2.2 %

2.4 %

0.2 %

Mazda

189,167

150,677

-20.3 %

2.3 %

2.2 %

-0.1 %

Geely

64,020

52,929

-17.3 %

0.8 %

0.8 %

0.0 %

Tata

56,215

31,103

-44.7 %

0.7 %

0.5 %

-0.2 %

Total

8,347,140

6,901,760

-17.3 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

0.0 %

1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data  

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company's more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

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SOURCE Cox Automotive

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