BLOG: Rain could make its way into Carolinas Wednesday

BLOG: Rain could make its way into Carolinas Wednesday
Forecast for 4 p.m. Wednesday
Forecast for 4 p.m. Wednesday

(WBTV) - A fairly stout cool front is poised to cross the WBTV viewing area midweek ushering in some of the coolest air in a while and ending a torrid stretch of dog-day weather.

In advance of the front, most neighborhoods east of the mountains will jump back into the 90s this afternoon and again Wednesday before the cooler air arrives for Thursday and beyond.

As for rain, this front won't be memorable.  While a few thundershowers can't be ruled out in the mountains this afternoon, the environment Wednesday does not appear on our weather models to be very volatile.

If you notice the graphics, there seems to be a pool of clouds over the northwest half of our viewing area early Wednesday and that, in itself, may be a leading cause for the model popping off only a few showers/storms during the heat of the afternoon along and south of I-85.  Note: clouds typically keep a lid on potential instability, whereas clearer skies – sun – help to destabilize the low-level atmosphere creating a more favorable environment for storm development.

At this point, I have just a 40% chance of rain Wednesday, and even that may be generous.  And while there is a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm along and south of I-85, things just appear out of phase for this front to be much of a rain-maker here.

With the above in mind, I have – at this time – decided NOT to declare Wednesday a First Alert Day.  It just does not seem to add up.  That said, the models could adjust and change, and so our forecast may – over time - change too, but at this point, I would not be too concerned for much more than an isolated thunderstorm with this next front late Wednesday.

Behind it, from Thursday through the weekend we get a break.  Low to mid 80s by day, lower 60s at night.

Goodbye Dog Days!

- Meteorologist Al Conklin

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