Confidence growing in snow forecast - | WBTV Charlotte

Confidence growing in snow forecast

GFS Model GFS Model
European model European model

The much-talked about late-week storm is still 3-4 days out, and has not even formed in the Gulf of Mexico yet, so while I am confident some snow is coming our way late Friday into Saturday, the exact details - as in how much for any one location - is still very much up for debate and I'm not in a position to get nailed down on that just yet.

Snow is a very emotional forecast; people tend to get a little crazy - in a good way - when the word is even mentioned.  Right now, I'm pleased I was able to allude to the fact that it appeared as if we'd get some snow this coming weekend LAST Friday, but even at this point, I’m still dealing in general ranges, not neighborhood-specific accumulations.

That disclaimer out of the way, I’m growing increasingly confident that “at least a few inches of snow” will fall across the WBTV viewing late in the week.

ARCHIVE PHOTOS: Snow, ice hit Charlotte in January 2016

If you look at the attached snow accumulation graphic models, both the European and Global Forecast Solution, commonly referred to as the GFS, paint 15 inch bulls-eyes well east of Charlotte. 

The European suggests that high-end amount would be common on the NC-VA line, northeast toward the Norfolk-Tidewater area.  The GFS, on the other hand, has the same amount positioned 100 miles south, just north of Wilmington along North Carolina’s Crystal Coast. 

Neither model brings that kind of snow to the WBTV area, but remarkably, both consistently print out 1 to 7 inches across our 22-county coverage area and 2 to 4 inches across metro Charlotte.  Time will tell if these accumulations verify.

Keep in mind, both the European and GFS long-range models that typically do a respectable job on the overall pattern, but the devil will be in the details and so soon, I’ll be putting equal strength in the short-range, finer-grid models that usually do well 24 to 48 hours out from a given event.

I hope this helps you understand the position I'm in; trying to do my best to provide accurate info without having to back-up at later put the genie back in the bottle...nobody wants to hear SNOW and then have the rug pulled out from under them!  Seems like when snow is in the air, we all fall back to being children at heart.

Stick with me and I'll keep you posted on the latest as I see it!

- Meteorologist Al Conklin

TRACK THE STORM with the free WBTV Weather App! 

Search "WBTV" in the app store or click here for download links.

Copyright 2017 WBTV. All rights reserved.

Powered by Frankly