(WBTV) - Although there hasn't been any official change to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track as of 2pm, I am noticing a bit of a trend in the afternoon models (NAM and GFS) early this afternoon, that could perhaps influence the full update that will come out at 5pm.
The full ECMWF (European model) isn't in yet, but both the NAM and GFS models have a slightly earlier "hook" or "curve" of Matthew to the east along the Georgia coastline. This was one of the main differences between the 8am and 11am track updates from the NHC... whereas the 8am brought the center of Matthew up to about Charleston before curving out, the 11am (and 2pm since there was no change) now curves it out closer to Savannah. So it appears the afternoon models coming in are still in line with this trend.
More of the most recent runs on the "spaghetti model" plots also pick up on the curved track of the storm, whereas before there was more divergence, and they weren't all quite as sold on it yet as they appear to be now. (See attached photo).
Obviously, the sooner the storm curves away from the Coast, the less North the impacts will spread. However, while the models are in better agreement on the track, they are still disagreeing more on the intensity. Some try and keep the storm a major hurricane through Saturday morning, while others weaken it dramatically from Friday into Saturday.
Stay tuned for the full 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center that will have the advantage of incorporating all of the newest afternoon model runs.