BLOG: My arms are killing me! - | WBTV Charlotte

BLOG: My arms are killing me!

Current Storm Position Current Storm Position
1:00am Snow Totals 1:00am Snow Totals
Forecast Storm Totals Forecast Storm Totals
National Weather Service Forecast National Weather Service Forecast

Meteorologists tend to get pulled in many different directions, especially during big events like Winter Storms.  

What does this model say?  How about that model?  What does past experience tell me?  What are the other meteorologists on staff thinking? What about my competition? Oh, and what is the National Weather Service forecasting?

With so much data to look at, there's always that gnawing feeling that I've missed something. And this storm was no different.  

When the day began, I felt like we would see very little snow south of Charlotte into SC.  Now, while that could still change before this ends in a few hours, to this point, it's been almost all rain in the SC Upstate.  I left my 1" - 3" forecast to guard against any last minute cold air that wraps in toward the end of this storm before dawn. 

The first three attached pictures show [1] the latest radar as of 1am, [2] the 1am snow reports, and [3] our most recent snowfall prediction map.  The fourth [4] image is the National Weather Service snowfall prediction which was issued just before we went on the air for our evening newscasts. 

I have a lot of respect for the NWS, they are dedicated, hardworking professionals.  As you can see their map had 8" - 10" of snow piercing deep into SC and 10" - 14" of snow extending from Union County southward across Lancaster County and into eastern Chester County, SC. 

As I said above, the first question that popped into my mind was, what have I missed?  It's very unsettling forecasting 1-3" where the NWS is forecasting 10-14".  So to be safe, I bumped up the totals there to 3-5" after reading their briefing, obviously still nowhere near what the NWS was thinking.  

For the late newscast I decided to take my forecast back down to 1-3" based on the way things were unfolding, and quite frankly, that will probably still be too high.

This isn't about who's right and who's wrong.  

We all do the best we can and try and learn from every experience to make an even better forecast next time around.  As it turns out, it appears the snow accumulations north of Charlotte should fall comfortably within the 3-6" forecast in that region. 

So as with most big storms like this, some areas appear to be working out well, while others are falling short. 

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