CHARLOTTE, NC (WBTV) - Will winter weather return to the Charlotte region Wednesday night?
That's a distinct possibility being raised by some of the latest weather model runs on Monday.
But to be sure, as of 11:45 Monday morning, we are now looking at the potential for measurable snowfall in the Charlotte area on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.
NOAA's WPC (Weather Prediction Center) give Charlotte a 50% to 60% chance of seeing snowfall greater than or equal to 4 inches.
That being said, at least one model I've looked at holds the bulk of the heavier precipitation further down to the south of the Charlotte area... a scenario that would greatly limit the amount of snow accumulating in Charlotte.
Two others, the GFS and the Canadian are in agreement that accumulating snow will develop in the Charlotte area Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
So here's what we'll be looking for the next 24 to 36 hours.
1. Run to run model consistency. We don't want to see the model output varying greatly from run to run. 2. Seeing a majority of the models buying into the accumulating snow scenario. Various models coming to a better consensus amongst themselves... give the forecaster a much greater degree of confidence in the forecast that we present on line and on air.
A couple of key questions I have are timing and forward speed of this system. How well the cold air support and the moisture come together... which determines the timing of a switch over from rain to snow... which subsequently determines the length of the snow event and the amount of snow that could accumulate.
So this is the latest forecast as of 1 pm Mon. New data will be coming in this afternoon.... and Eric and Leigh will be going over that this afternoon and evening.
Al and I will look at the freshest data on Tuesday morning... and hopefully by Tuesday night we have a forecast in hand that we have a greater degree of confidence in.
But we also want to give our audience a heads up to plan now for an event that may create a great deal of disruption and inconvenience by Thursday morning.