How much snow will we see this weekend?

How much snow will we see this weekend?
(WBTV)

CHARLOTTE, NC (WBTV) - Now that our much-advertised weekend winter storm system is slowly pushing ashore, the next few runs of our weather computer models will continue to clear up the details surrounding who will see what and when this weekend and into Monday.

At this point, we feel very confident in the overall pattern, the cold air that will be present at the surface, the available moisture and the timing.

Nagging questions that still make this a difficult forecast, especially south of I-40, include the final track of the storm and whether there will be enough cold air aloft to promote snow for an extended duration (particularly in southern sections). If the track is farther south by 100 miles, over North Florida, most everyone in the WBTV viewing area would likely see snow. If the track error is 100 miles to the north, warmer air would get pulled in (first aloft then at ground level) and that would result in much more of a mixed bag of precipitation versus snow.

We hope to be able to answer these questions over the next 24 hours, but even so, there’s enough confidence in this forecast now that we feel comfortable in putting out a “first shot” snow accumulation map. Please, don’t focus too critically on the exact numbers, as, based on the answers to the questions outlined above, there will likely be adjustments over time. That’s just the nature of the business.

WBTV Thursday morning weather forecast

We’ll remain dry and cold today and Friday, with afternoon readings in the upper 40s again today, inching up into the lower 50s Friday.

Most of Saturday will simply be cloudy and cold with highs in the 30s to around 40°. But late Saturday into Sunday, it’ll be game time, with snow overspreading most of the area (rain in South Carolina).

At this point, it seems a certainty that the North Carolina mountains and northern foothills will experience a substantial accumulation of snow. Even with some sleet mixing in at times, 10-20 inches seems likely, and that could be on the low side for some neighborhoods.

The zone between I-85 and I-40 stands a decent chance at getting accumulating snow and sleet but depending on the exact track of this storm, freezing rain and even plain rain would probably mix in at times and accumulations here are tough to nail down at this point. With that disclaimer noted, we now feel comfortable with a 4-6 inch range west of Lake Norman and south of I-40 and 6-10 inches near and just north of I-40. Again, all subject to change.

As for Charlotte and points south of I-85, climatology is not on our side for a lot of snow, but based what the models are suggesting at this juncture, we’ll forecast 2-4 inches of snow and sleet for north Meck and 1-2 inches for south Meck with little accumulation expected in Chester, Lancaster and Chesterfield counties. As stated above, subject to change!

- Meteorologist Al Conklin

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